I usually try to avoid predicting the future because humans, as a general rule, are not very good at it. But when things look repetitive or cyclical, then sometimes a “bold” prediction here and there is worth attempting.
So, with that in mind, over the course of the next 5 years or so I predict widespread consolidation in the NoSQL DBMS market. As of today (February 18, 2015), NoSQL-Database.org lists 150 different NoSQL database systems. Anybody should be able to foresee that a number of NoSQL offerings so vast is not sustainable for very long. Winners will emerge pushing laggards out of business (or to languish).
Why are there so many NoSQL options? Well, IT folks like options. Many did not necessarily want to be tied to the Big Three RDBMS vendors (Oracle, IBM and Microsoft); others were looking for novel ways to solve problems that were not very well served by relational offerings. But nobody wants a sea of incompatible, proprietary DBMSes for very long because it is hard to support, hard to train talent for, and hard to find new employees with experience.
So consolidation will happen.
Additionally, the Big Three RDBMS vendors (and others) will work to incorporate the best features and functionality of the NoSQL database systems into their products. This is already happening (witness the column store capability of IBM DB2 for LUW with BLU Acceleration). We will almost certainly see more NoSQL capabilities being added to the relational world.
So there you have it: two “bold” predictions.
- The NoSQL database market will consolidate with a few winners, some middle of the packers, and many losers.
- The relational database market will combat NoSQL by adding capabilities to their existing portfolio
What do you think? Do these predictions make sense to you? Add your thoughts and comments below…